Would go-alone Scotland be richer outside UK?
Aberdeen's Old Town House, an 18th century brick building replete
with clock tower and cockerel wind vane, was restored a decade ago with
great care.
Walls were treated with
plaster lined with horse hair, while the beams were strengthened with
nails designed not to split the aged wood. Traditional techniques dating
back to biblical days were used, ensuring the building's historic value
was retained.
It's a $1.6 million job
Kenny Anderson is particularly proud of. The building was once the
business center of the town, and it now appears in the Architectural
Heritage Society of Scotland's logo.
For the owner of
Scotland's Anderson Construction, which employs just 40 people, this
shows how apparently minor players, like Scotland if it becomes
independent, can achieve big things.
Anderson sees his company
as a metaphor for the benefits of a "yes" vote. He is supporting the
campaign for an independent Scotland, one which has sent shudders
through Westminster -- and further afield -- as it gains traction ahead
of Thursday's vote.
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Photos: Scotland divided
Polls show the vote is on a knife edge, and the uncertainty has already hit the pound, prompted banks to threaten to quit Scotland and forced Bank of England governor Mark Carney to warn of currency risks of a breakaway.
A split would end the
307-year union with England and Wales as Great Britain, which has helped
push Scotland to its affluent position on the global stage. But, its
detractors argue, it's also held it back from its full economic
potential.
For Anderson, the
Aberdeen leader of pro-independent group Business for Scotland, the
economics can be seen as more simple. He sees his company as a microcosm
of the bigger debate.
In a small, independent
business, it's "easy to change things, it's easy to make fast
decisions," he said. "I used to be a minority shareholder in much larger
company and making good decisions, and changing things is ten times
more difficult."
Scotland's riches
Scotland is richer, per
capita, than the UK, a fact the independence campaigners love to
champion. Its access to oil pushes its GDP per person to 115% of the
UK's, according to the Scottish government, making it the world's 14th
richest country. The UK ranks at number 18.
Scotland's total GDP was
$240 billion in the year to first quarter of 2014, around 8% of total
UK GDP. Scotland's economic output per head is also the highest in the
UK outside London and the South East of England, according to national
statistics.
Scotland has certain unique industries which are incredibly
important to it, but from Westminster point of view are lower down the
agenda.
Kenny Anderson
Kenny Anderson
Beyond oil, a global
taste for Scottish whiskey boosts its economy, with food and drink
making up nearly a fifth of its $40 billion exports internationally,
government figures show. Scotland exports a further $75 billion worth of
goods and services into the UK -- which, the pro-independence camp
says, means an independent country could claim to be a significant
global exporter.
But the Scots have been
hit hard by the recession. During its most painful year, 2009, the
country's economy shrank by 6%, lagging behind the rest of the UK, where
the contraction was 4%. Productivity and average household incomes are
also below the overall UK levels.
But those promoting a
breakaway say the country would be more resilient and would have
survived the recession better had it not been in Westminster's shadow.
Edinburgh's economic
advisory body -- which includes Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz -- has
argued economic policies tailored to local needs would boost growth.
Independent Scotland could, for example, aim its tax policies at helping
the crucial exporters.
Anderson agrees.
"Scotland has certain unique industries which are incredibly important
to it, but from Westminster point of view are lower down the agenda than
they would be in independent Scotland."
Whiskey, gas and tourism are high on that list, he said.
And oil is the trump card.
The question of oil
Scotland's black gold is used by both sides to bolster their arguments.
Around 90% of the UK's
oil comes from Scotland. The Scottish government says it has up to 24
billion barrels of oil reserves in the North Sea, which could generate
up to $2.4 trillion in revenue.
Scotland and England's rocky relationship
Would independence affect Scotch whisky?
Will Scottish tradition affect the vote?
Such wealth plays
directly into the independence debate. The bulk of oil workers want
Scotland to become independent, with 70% telling pollsters they're set
to vote in favor. Kevin Forbes, chief executive of the Oil and Gas
People recruitment company, which commissioned the research, said the
industry's workers "are not getting scared" by the "no" campaign.
The Scottish government
is also promoting the idea of an oil fund, such as that in Norway, which
indirectly supports social spending -- something the UK government has
not done.
But others warn Scotland's oil riches could prove more fleeting than the "yes" campaigners suggest.
Last month Scottish billionaire oil magnate Ian Wood stirred the debate by
claiming Scottish oil reserves could be completely depleted by 2050,
saying the country had between 15 and 16.5 billion barrels of oil still
available. His stance -- supported by British oil giant BP -- was
rejected by the pro-independence campaign.
Scotland's oil
production has been declining steadily over the past decade. It dropped
more than 10% in both 2013, following a decline of 14% in 2012,
according to the Scottish government. The decline has been offset by
rising oil prices.
The currency headache
The currency question
remains Scotland's thorniest. In the past, the Scottish government has
promoted the idea of joining the euro. But with the 18-country bloc
struggling to emerge from crisis and facing further slowdown as its
relations with Russia deteriorate, the idea has been dismissed.
Now, it's seeking a currency union with the rest of the UK, similar to the one Benelux countries had before joining the euro.
But British Prime
Minister David Cameron has whole-heartedly rejected the idea and it's
one on which Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has come unstuck in
political debates, unable to offer a clear answer to the question so
many investors are asking.
But the political
point-scoring might prove just that: Stiglitz and his fellow advisers
say a common currency may be forced upon Scotland and the rest of the UK
by economic necessity. The cost of splitting the currency would be
simply to high for both sides of the border.
It's the economy, stupid
What is clear from the opinion polls is that the economy and the
arrangements to secure the future business of Scotland are the number
one issue.
Keith Cochrane
Keith Cochrane
Ahead of the referendum,
Scots are split on their ambitions. While the economic partnership is
central to the debate, campaigners are going for hearts over heads. The
independent "yes" campaign is trundling out pictures of happy children,
prosperous towns and beautiful Scottish countryside. The "better
together" campaign emphasizes the strong tradition of the union, and at
times uses scare tactics.
The uncertainty is
already being blamed for destabilizing the economy. Keith Cochrane, head
of engineering company Weir, penned an open letter with 200 other
business leaders warning their compatriots about the costs and unknown
consequences of a vote for independence.
Cochrane believes Scots
will ultimately be swayed by the impact on their wallets. "We are all
proud Scots, and [emotions] will influence [us] to varying degrees. But
what is clear from the opinion polls is that the economy and the
arrangements to secure the future business of Scotland are the number
one issue," Cochrane said.
For Anderson, however,
that impact is the opposite to what Cochrane argues. During his two
decades in business, Anderson has put his business stamp on numerous
projects in Aberdeen. He employs locally and he relies on Scottish
suppliers, including for the special nails used in the Old Town House
refurbishment.
Blunt, but with
sharpened sides, they reflect the type of nails used in biblical times,
for crucifixions, according to Anderson. Such supplies are difficult to
find, but those used for this most delicate project were manufactured in
Glasgow.
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